Project Overview
This valuation employs a top-down approach to estimate the intrinsic value of Standard Chartered Bank Nepal (SCB), one of Nepal's leading commercial banks.
The analysis begins with macroeconomic projections (primarily Nepal's GDP and private sector credit growth), then drills down to SCB-specific assumptions including market share, profitability margins, and regulatory constraints imposed by Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB).
Three scenarios (base, optimistic, pessimistic) are modeled to capture a realistic range of possible outcomes.
Key Modeling Elements & Assumptions
- Macro foundation: Private sector lending growth is projected in alignment with Nepal's expected real GDP growth (typically 4–6% in base case), adjusted for inflation and credit cycle dynamics.
- Market share: SCB’s historical and potential future share in private sector credit is estimated based on competitive positioning and branch/network strength.
- Capital adequacy advantage: Higher CAR compared to peers allows greater lending capacity within NRB limits.
- Asset quality: Persistently low non-performing loans (NPLs) reduce provisioning needs and support profitability.
- Deposit structure constraint: High proportion of call/short-term deposits requires maintaining elevated liquid assets → results in a more conservative credit-to-deposit (CD) ratio and limits aggressive loan book expansion.
- Scenario analysis: Variations in GDP growth, credit growth, market share, NIM, and cost-to-income assumptions produce a valuation range.
Output & Deliverable
The complete model — financial projections, ratio analysis, scenario results, and valuation conclusion — is available in the report below.
Download SCB Valuation Report (PDF) ← Back to Portfolio